The Need and Feasibility of the UN to Lead the Human Community in Creating a Digital Planet(002)

— An Open Letter to UN Secretary-General Guterres and Global

“The Tao never does, Yet through it everything is done.

If princes and dukes can keep the Tao,

Everything in the world will change naturally

When change and rising to desire,

Let it be restrained by the Nameless pristine simplicity.

The Nameless pristine simplicity

Is stripped of desire .

By stripping of desire quiescence is achieved,

And the world arrives at peace of its own accord.”

— Tao Te Ching, Chapter 37

“The Tao often seems to do nothing, but then it seems to do everything. If the leader can hold on to such a Tao, all things under heaven will be naturally nurtured in it. In this process of nurturing, various needs or desires will also arise. At this time, I will remain secure in the unnamed root. When this unnameable root is kept, those needs and desires will slowly subside, and all things will begin to be purified, and the world will naturally return to peace and tranquillity.”

— Translation of Topal

Part I.: The Problem (Origins)

Seventy-eight years have passed since the United Nations was founded in 1945. The United Nations has played an extremely important role in the international arena, particularly in maintaining world peace and providing relief to the disadvantaged, and has made tremendous achievements that have attracted worldwide attention. Over the past 70 years, the UN, its specialized agencies, funds, programmes and staff have been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize 12 times. This is irrefutable proof of the enormous contribution and outstanding achievements of the United Nations to the peace and stability of human society. Because of this, the international reputation and international influence of the UN has grown. 2018 saw the ultimate in global credibility and authority when all 193 undisputed sovereign states around the world became members of the UN.

However, what needs to be confronted is this. As the influence of the UN reaches every corner of the planet, instead of further enhancing and strengthening its positive role, the UN is showing a clear weakness and helplessness. Whether in addressing global climate issues, global hunger, regional conflicts or refugee issues. All appear to be weak and ineffective. In particular, the global pandemic of the new epidemic and the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war have put the UN in a dilemma of increasing passivity, making it very difficult and embarrassing. No matter how much effort or how long it takes, these problems are like bottomless pits that cannot be filled.

Next, let us take the most urgent and serious issue of global warming as an example to see why it is said that humanity has come to an extremely dangerous edge. Why it is said that going on with the existing mechanism and trajectory of the United Nations will only be futile and will not solve any human crisis at all.

1. The death of global climate

The global warming question and the accelerated deterioration of the earth’s ecology are the primary problems that human society can’t wait to solve. Since 1951, the World Meteorological Organization has been a specialized agency of the United Nations. The United Nations has made unremitting efforts for more than half a century to this end. The UN, in a state of “paperwork and meetings”, holds thousands of meetings around the world every day, more than half of which are related to climate issues. The following important agreements were finally reached.

In 1992, 《the United Nations Framework Convention》 on Climate Change was signed, with 197 countries worldwide becoming parties.

In 1995, 《the Kyoto Protocol》 was formally adopted, with 192 countries becoming parties.

In 2016, 《the Paris Agreement》 was formally signed. Currently, 191 countries have become parties.

In 2021, the joint communiqué of 《the Glasgow Climate Convention 》was published, with nearly 200 parties.

Of these, the Paris Agreement and the Glasgow Climate Convention are particularly important. The overriding consensus is to limit global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century.

But we have to face up to the reality that on our planet, the average global temperature has risen by 0.85°C between 1880 and 2012. in 2021, the average global temperature is 1.1°C higher than it was in 1880. that is, in less than 10 years, the average temperature has risen by 0.26°C. There is no doubt that warming is accelerating. At this rate, perhaps the threshold of 1.5°C will be breached before 2050.

And even with a rise of only 1.1°C, the extreme weather changes on the planet are already causing unprecedented discomfort and panic to be felt by all. There is a serious threat to human life, property and lives.

On 24 January 2019,, temperatures in Adelaide, Australia reached 46.6°C, breaking an 80-year record. Waiala 48.5°C, Leigh Creek 46.9°C and Port Augusta 49.1°C, all breaking all-time highs. The high temperatures caused a large number of wildlife deaths, including a third of the Australian spectacled fox bats in two days.

2020 is the warmest year on record in Asia. 38.0°C in Verkhoyansk, Russia, which is the highest known temperature north of the Arctic Circle. The first recorded rainfall, rather than snow, at the summit of the Greenland Ice Sheet. During one of the many heat waves in the south-western United States, one of which brought temperatures to 54.4°C in Death Valley, California.

Fig.1 National Weather Service High Temperature Forecast for June 1, 2021

In June 2021, an intense heat wave not seen in a thousand years swept across the west coast of North America. Portland, Oregon, set a new record of 41.7°C for the third day in a row. The state’s cities of Eugene, 43.8°C, and Salem, 45°C, both set record highs. Canada also saw extreme heat, with Leighton, British Columbia breaking the heat record for the third day in a row at 49.5°C. In July, record-breaking heavy rainfall hit Zhengzhou, China. More than 200mm of rain fell in one hour, almost as much as a year’s worth of rainfall in a single day.

In March 2022, the Kanger Ice Shelf in East Antarctica, covering an area of about 1,200 square kilometres, collapsed, the first time in human history that an ice shelf had collapsed in a cold region. on 3 July, Tokyo metropolis experienced nine consecutive days of high temperatures above 35°C, setting a record for continuous high temperatures on consecutive days since meteorological records began in 1875. on 6 July, 22 meteorological stations in China had temperatures exceeding historical extremes . The northwestern city of Zhangye set a new record high of 40.3°C, beating the record high of 39.8°C set on 14 July 2001.

Likewise this year, just as this letter was issued, A terrible heatwave is hitting South America, with Chile creating one of the hottest periods of hot weather on record and fierce wildfires. Huge plumes of smoke from the fires can be seen from space.

Fig. 2, Heatwave and wildfires in South America photographed from space, January 2023

Today, human society’s knowledge of global climate change is, shall we say, much deeper than it was 10 years ago. Even if there are still differences of one kind or another in academic circles, there is a growing global social consensus on the central point of curbing global temperature rise. One can perceive the fact that there has been such a significant climate anomaly in this decade, when global temperatures have still only risen by 0.26°C. If it were to rise by a further 0.4°C on top of this, it is anyone’s guess as to how severe the human impact of global climate extremes will be. In any case, the severity of the climate extremes caused by rising temperatures greatly exceeds the predictions of climate authorities and experts. Therefore, until new scientific evidence is found that conclusively proves that global climate change is not linked to human activity. Ensuring that global temperatures do not rise by more than 1.5°C by 2100 should be a goal that the human community, and the United Nations, should strive for in every way possible.

Fig. 3 Image of thawing snow-capped mountains at high Arctic altitude in Norway taken in 2015

However, unfortunately, the reality is that there is little chance of achieving this goal if we continue to move forward on the path and model of the UN’s existing settlement.

(to be continued)

The English translation is mainly done by AI and is inevitably not accurate enough. Please refer to the original Chinese text below for a more accurate understanding.

联合国引领人类社会打造数字地球的必要性和可行性（002）

— — 致联合国秘书长古特雷斯及全球贤达的公开信

“道常无为而无不为。侯王若能守之，万物将自化。化而欲作，吾将镇之以无名之朴。镇之以无名之朴，夫将不欲。不欲以静，天下将自正。”

— — 《道德经》第37章

“道”常常看起来什么都没做，但又好像什么它都做了。引领者如果能持守这样的一种“道”，天下万物将在其中自然化育。在这个化育过程中，各种需求或欲望也会呈现。这时候，我将依然安稳地守住那个无法命名的根本。守住了这个无法命名的根本，那些需求和欲望就会慢慢消退，万物也开始清净下来，天下也自然回归安宁平和。

— — Topal译释

上篇：问题（缘起）

联合国自1945年成立，至今78年过去了。联合国在国际舞台上发挥着极其重要的作用，尤其在维护世界和平和救助弱势群体方面，取得了举世瞩目的巨大成就。七十多年来，联合国及其专门机构、相关机构、基金、方案和工作人员共12次获颁诺贝尔和平奖。无可辩驳的证明了联合国对人类社会和平和安定做出的巨大贡献和杰出成就。正因为如此，联合国的国际声誉和国际影响力也越来越高。2018年，当全球193个无争议的主权国全部成为了联合国会员国后，联合国的全球公信力和权威性达到了极致。

然而，需要正视的是。随着联合国的影响力抵达这个星球的每一个角落，联合国的积极作用不是在进一步提升和强化，反而呈现出明显的疲软和无奈。无论是在解决全球气候问题、全球饥饿问题，还是地区冲突问题、难民问题方面。都显得有心无力、回天乏术。尤其是新冠疫情的全球大流行和俄乌战争的爆发，更让联合国陷入了一种越来越被动的窘境中，十分为难、十分尴尬。无论花费多大力气、多长时间，这些难题就像是一个个无底洞，怎么也填不满。

接下来，我们就以最迫切、最严重的全球气候变暖问题为例，来看看，为什么说人类已经走到了一个极端危险的边缘。为什么说，按照联合国现有的机制和轨迹走下去，只能是徒劳无功，根本解决不了任何人类危机。

1，全球气候之殇

全球气候变暖问、地球生态加速恶化，是人类社会刻不容缓要解决的首要难题。自1951年，世界气象组织成为联合国专门机构以来。联合国为此进行了半个多世纪的不懈努力。“文山会海”状态下的联合国，每天要在全球召开上千场会议，其中一半以上都是与气候问题相关的。终于达成以下重要约定：

1992年，《联合国气候变化框架公约》签订，全球197个国家成为缔约国；

1995年，《京都协议书》正式通过，192个国家成为缔约国；

2016年，《巴黎协定》正式签署。目前，已有191个国家成为缔约国。

2021年，《格拉斯哥气候公约》联合公报发布，缔约国近200个。

其中，《巴黎协定》和《格拉斯哥气候公约》尤为重要。最主要共识，是在本世纪末，将全球气温变暖限制在1.5℃之内。

但我们不得不正视的现实是：我们这个地球，自1880年至2012年，全球平均气温上升了0.85℃。2021年，全球平均温度比1880年高出了1.1°C。也就是说，在这最近不到10年时间内，平均气温上升了0.26℃。毫无疑问，升温在加速。这样下去，或许到不了2050年，就会突破1.5℃这个阈值了。

而即便只升高了1.1°C，地球上极端天气的变化，已经让所有人感觉到了前所未有的不适和恐慌。对人类的生活、财产和生命，都造成了严重威胁。

2019年1月24日，，澳大利亚阿德莱德气温达到46.6℃，打破80年来的纪录。怀阿拉48.5℃、利溪46.9℃、奥古斯塔港49.1℃，全部打破历史最高纪录。高温造成大量野生动物死亡，其中澳大利亚眼镜狐蝠两天内死亡三分之一。

2020年是亚洲有记录以来最暖的年份。俄罗斯维尔霍扬斯克的38.0°C，这是目前已知的北极圈以北的最高温度。在格陵兰冰盖的顶峰处，出现了有记录以来的首次降雨，而不是降雪。在美国西南部的多次热浪中，其中一次热浪使加利福尼亚州死亡谷的温度达到了54.4℃。

图1 美国国家气象局 2021 年 6 月 1 日高温预报

2021年6月，一场千年未有的强热浪席卷北美西海岸。俄勒冈州波特兰市连续三天41.7℃，刷新历史纪录。该州尤金市43.8℃、塞勒姆市45℃，均创纪录新高。加拿大也出现了极端高温，其中，不列颠哥伦比亚省的利顿连续三天破高温纪录，达到49.5℃。7月，创纪录的特大暴雨侵袭中国郑州。一个小时的降雨量超过了200毫米，一天的雨量几乎等同于常年一年降雨量。

2022年3月，位于南极洲东部面积约为1200平方公里的康格冰架崩，这是人类历史上首次在寒冷地区出现冰架坍塌。7月3日，东京都连续九天出现35℃以上高温天气，创下自1875年气象记录开始以来的连日持续高温纪录。7月6日这一天，中国有22个气象站气温突破历史极值。西北城市张掖40.3℃创下历史新高，刷新了2001年7月14日的39.8℃的最高纪录。

今年也同样，就在发布此信之际，可怕的热浪正在袭击南美洲，智利创造了有记录以来最热的一段高温天气，并发生了猛烈的野火。 从太空中可以看到大火产生的巨大烟雾。

图2 2023年2月太空拍摄的南美洲热浪和大火

今天，人类社会对全球气候变化的认知，与10年前相比，应该说更深入了。即便在学术界还有这样那样的分歧，但在遏制全球气温上升这个核心点上，全球的社会性共识是越来越大了。人们能感受到的事实是，这10年间，全球气温还仅仅上升了0.26℃，就已经有这么显著的气候异常了。如果在此基础上，再上升0.4℃，全球极端气候对人类的影响将严重到什么程度，谁都无法预料。不管怎么说，气温上升所造成极端气候的严峻程度，大大超过了气候权威和专家们的预测。因此，在没有找到新的科学证据，确切证明全球气候变化与人类活动无关之前。确保全球气温在2100年前，上升不超过1.5℃，应该是人类社会、也是联合国千方百计要去努力、要去争取的目标。

图3 2015年拍摄的挪威高海拔北极雪山解冻图片

然而，非常遗憾的是，从种种现实来看，如果继续按照联合国现有既定解决问题路径和模式往前走，要实现这个目标几乎没有任何可能了。

（未完待续）